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Author SHA1 Message Date
ftong 00c0ca4c3a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-24 12:46:06 +02:00
ftong 008b3f7d21 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
try distances/1000
2026-06-24 12:27:25 +02:00
ftong 2b6cd52131 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-24 11:39:03 +02:00
ftong 7e550f36f9 Update src/shf_wrapper.py
update wrapper
2026-06-23 17:16:33 +02:00
ftong bb70ebbe24 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
stretch image to exact borders of svg file
2026-06-23 14:33:55 +02:00
ftong 73fd54cc76 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
add more logging
2026-06-23 13:09:39 +02:00
ftong 72dc427a0e Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 10:56:54 +02:00
ftong 3576b9eb96 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
activate test zone AOI
2026-06-23 03:58:33 +02:00
ftong 92b6eb4880 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 03:21:53 +02:00
ftong 13b463a15a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
try distance in metres
2026-06-23 02:53:44 +02:00
ftong 62e551ff6a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 02:52:42 +02:00
ftong fa192fd7a0 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 02:20:53 +02:00
ftong e3d7fca55c Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 02:05:27 +02:00
ftong c7f1dfa548 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 00:40:16 +02:00
ftong 105a36893a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-23 00:04:34 +02:00
ftong d5e5435d83 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-22 23:36:33 +02:00
ftong 144f7e1fcd Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
remove events below mc for activity rate
2026-06-22 23:04:07 +02:00
ftong 337457d49c Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-22 22:58:10 +02:00
ftong 3d4f9138d7 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix attempt 2
2026-06-22 19:23:13 +02:00
ftong 0ef41d72f6 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix orientation issue attempt 1
2026-06-22 19:06:19 +02:00
ftong b7ee8d52ab Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
log message about AOI activation and fix orientation if AOI selected
2026-06-22 14:08:10 +02:00
ftong 89f3f70c62 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-22 12:28:23 +02:00
ftong 9f78e5681c Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
use upscale=1 while testing
2026-06-19 18:07:55 +02:00
ftong 9a0b9444a3 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-19 17:01:55 +02:00
ftong 3ea88e0eb4 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix array size of lambdas and lambdas_perc
2026-06-19 16:05:37 +02:00
ftong 504b553b9a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
make lambdas at least 1d
2026-06-19 15:59:50 +02:00
ftong 18e3fd0ca3 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-19 15:54:49 +02:00
ftong 59955cf085 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-19 15:52:18 +02:00
ftong 0a09a2dc00 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-19 15:50:50 +02:00
ftong e7a344bca3 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
remove "percentage" in activity rate csv
2026-06-19 15:45:23 +02:00
ftong 01ec215124 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
missing from matplotlib.ticker import MultipleLocator
2026-06-19 15:41:33 +02:00
ftong f50a315ed7 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
import matplotlib
2026-06-19 15:39:41 +02:00
ftong 037863e975 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
temporary global variables since GUI not ready
2026-06-19 15:38:35 +02:00
ftong fb00131997 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py 2026-06-19 15:33:43 +02:00
ftong 41a900c366 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
import numpy
2026-06-19 15:09:47 +02:00
ftong 4212037a78 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix time_win_duration name
2026-06-19 15:08:17 +02:00
ftong a00d4d6f52 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix missing call to bin_and_beast
2026-06-19 15:02:14 +02:00
ftong 09cf4b0e6a Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix mag_label
2026-06-19 14:54:20 +02:00
ftong 3b797e41cb Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
fix syntax error
2026-06-19 14:40:44 +02:00
ftong b51e5b9f43 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
correct mag_data variable name
2026-06-19 14:38:00 +02:00
ftong bb3184a126 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
correct activity rate to be per time unit before fed to forecasting
2026-06-19 14:36:49 +02:00
ftong 46ff6b8a6c Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
use new activity rate forecast method
2026-06-19 14:29:44 +02:00
ftong 7e89f75c84 Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
put AOI_extent as a parameter of the main function
2026-06-15 11:05:04 +02:00
ftong 6fac004cac Update src/seismic_hazard_forecasting.py
when the 4 values specifying the lat and lon range of the area of interest (AOI) are provided, only do forecasting for grid points within the AOI
2026-06-10 18:13:04 +02:00
tomekbalawajder 50930e3233 Merge pull request 'Changes made in September 2025' (!22) from Sept2025 into master
Reviewed-on: official-apps/SeismicHazardForecasting#22
Reviewed-by: tomekbalawajder <tomekbalawajder@noreply.example.org>
2025-09-29 11:34:02 +02:00
ftong a5534212ba cleanup 2025-09-25 12:07:02 +02:00
ftong d661cad991 disable progress bar 2025-09-24 14:13:21 +02:00
ftong 3136c4985d disable cython 2025-09-24 14:05:22 +02:00
ftong deb7005604 Force use of fork in multiprocessing
From Tomasz Balawajder:
"Since we are using a Java service to launch the Python process, its behavior differs from running the script directly on the cluster.

By default, Dask uses fork() to create worker processes. However, when running under the JVM, the start method defaults to spawn, which does not share memory between processes. This caused the slowdown and unexpected behavior.

I’ve forced Python to use fork() in the configuration, and now the application completes in the same time as when executed with sbatch."
2025-09-23 11:41:08 +02:00
ftong fe9d886499 interpolation is always used on the final grid 2025-09-12 10:37:03 +02:00
ftong f7eb39c43c add final image smoothing through binlinear interpolation 2025-09-10 18:39:43 +02:00
ftong 00bd39a098 impose requirement of minimum size of range of output data to do image processing 2025-09-10 16:33:11 +02:00
ftong 5a1f43d6cd enforce: user must have "activity rate estimation" unselected for custom rate to be used
Previously, user could enter a value enter the  custom rate box, enable "activity rate estimation" and the custom rate box would disappear but the program would still see the value previously entered and use it even though it was no longer visible in the user interface
2025-09-10 12:00:50 +02:00
ftong a1c0ae36bb set a minimum number of computed grid values to trigger upscaling of grid image 2025-09-09 14:41:02 +02:00
ftong 63351ceb10 fix weighting option selection 2025-09-09 11:03:05 +02:00
ftong 65759b86f1 change search interval for PGV to be different than that for PGA/SA 2025-09-09 10:56:35 +02:00
2 changed files with 436 additions and 93 deletions
+427 -88
View File
@@ -1,9 +1,260 @@
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
from eqdist.rate import datenum_to_datetime
import Rbeast as rb;
from scipy.stats import bootstrap
from matplotlib.dates import DateFormatter, AutoDateLocator
from matplotlib.ticker import MultipleLocator
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
global ncp_choice, tcp_max, torder_min, torder_max
ncp_choice = 'default'
tcp_max = 5
torder_min = 0
torder_max = 1
#AOI_lat = np.array([51.48, 51.54])
#AOI_lon = np.array([16.15, 16.24])
#AOI_lat = np.array([None, None])
#AOI_lon = np.array([None, None])
def plot_results(act_rate, bin_edges, bin_edges_dt, rt, boundaries,
bin_dur, unit, multiplicator,
rate_forecast, rate_unc_high, rate_unc_low,
datenum_data, mag_data):
end_date = bin_edges[-1]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 6))
ax.plot(bin_edges_dt[1:], act_rate, '-o', linewidth=2.5, markersize=6.5, label='Activity rate')
if rate_forecast is not None:
next_date = end_date + (bin_dur / multiplicator)
ax.plot(datenum_to_datetime(next_date), rate_forecast,
'ro', label='Forecasted Rate', markersize=6.5)
ax.plot([bin_edges_dt[-1], datenum_to_datetime(next_date)], [act_rate[-1], rate_forecast], 'r-', linewidth=2.5)
ax.vlines(datenum_to_datetime(next_date), rate_unc_low, rate_unc_high, colors='r',
linewidth=2, label='Bootstrap uncertainty')
ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(AutoDateLocator())
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(DateFormatter('%d-%b-%Y'))
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.title(f'Activity rate (Time Unit: {unit}, Bin Duration: {bin_dur} {unit})',fontsize=18)
# plt.title(f'Activity rate (Bin Duration: {bin_dur} {unit})',fontsize=18)
plt.xlabel('Time (Bin Center Date)', fontsize=16)
ax.set_ylabel('Activity rate per selected time period',fontsize=16)
plt.grid(True)
if len(rt) > 0:
for i in range(len(rt)):
ax.plot(bin_edges_dt[1:][boundaries[i]:boundaries[i+1]],
[rt[i]] * (boundaries[i+1] - boundaries[i]),
linewidth=2, label=f'Rate period {i+1}')
# ---- Magnitude scatter on right y-axis ----
ax2 = ax.twinx()
event_dates = [datenum_to_datetime(d) for d in datenum_data]
#-------------extract magnitude bins from data---------------------
mags = np.array(mag_data)
min_mag = mags.min()
max_mag = mags.max()
low_thresh = int(np.floor(min_mag))
high_thresh = int(np.floor(max_mag))
thresholds = list(range(low_thresh, high_thresh + 1))
base_size = 15
size_step = 35
bins_def = []
for idx, t in enumerate(thresholds):
low = t
if idx < len(thresholds) - 1:
high = thresholds[idx + 1]
label = f'{low:.1f} \u2264 M < {high:.1f}'
else:
high = np.inf
label = f'M \u2265 {low:.1f}'
size = base_size + idx * size_step
bins_def.append((low, high, size, label))
for low, high, size, label in bins_def:
mask = (mags >= low) & (mags < high)
if np.any(mask):
sel_dates = [d for d, m in zip(event_dates, mask) if m]
sel_mags = mags[mask]
ax2.scatter(sel_dates, sel_mags, s=size,
facecolor='purple', edgecolor='black',
alpha=0.15, linewidth=1, label=label)
ax2.set_ylabel('Magnitude', color='purple',fontsize=16)
ax2.yaxis.set_major_locator(MultipleLocator(0.5))
ax2.yaxis.set_minor_locator(MultipleLocator(0.1))
ax2.spines['right'].set_color('purple')
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', colors='purple')
h1, l1 = ax.get_legend_handles_labels()
h2, l2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()
handles = h1 + h2
labels = l1 + l2
n_legend = len(handles)
ncols = max(1, int(np.ceil(n_legend / 5))) # ~5 entries per column
#-------add 20% headroom above the data to make space for legend------
ymin, ymax = ax.get_ylim()
ax.set_ylim(ymin, ymax * 1.20)
ax.legend(handles, labels, loc='best',
ncol=ncols, borderaxespad=0,framealpha=0.7)
ax.set_zorder(ax2.get_zorder() + 1) # put scatter plot behind the line plot
ax.patch.set_visible(False)
fig.tight_layout()
plt.savefig("activity_rate.png", dpi=600)
plt.show()
def bootstrap_forecast(data):
window_data=data
if len(window_data) >= 5:
res95 = bootstrap((window_data,), np.mean, confidence_level=0.95,
method='BCa', n_resamples=1000)
else:
res95 = bootstrap((window_data,), np.mean, confidence_level=0.95,
method='BCa', n_resamples=int(len(window_data) ** len(window_data)))
forecast = np.mean(res95.bootstrap_distribution)
bca_conf95 = res95.confidence_interval
return forecast, bca_conf95
def calc_rates(act_rate, cps):
"""
Calculates mean activity rates between changepoints.
cps : sorted array of changepoint indices into act_rate
Returns rt (list of rates) and segment boundaries
"""
boundaries = [0] + list(cps.astype(int)) + [len(act_rate)]
rt = [np.mean(act_rate[boundaries[i]:boundaries[i+1]])
for i in range(len(boundaries)-1)]
return rt, boundaries
def apply_beast(act_rate):
"""
Applies BEAST to the smmothed rate data using different smoothing windows.
Input
act_rate : The activity rate data array to smooth and apply BEAST.
Output
out : A list of BEAST results for each smoothed rate array.
prob : A list of probabilities and change points extracted from BEAST results.
"""
mirror_len = int(np.ceil(0.20 * len(act_rate)))
left_mirror = act_rate[:mirror_len][::-1]
right_mirror = act_rate[-mirror_len:][::-1]
act_rate_mirrored = np.concatenate([left_mirror, act_rate, right_mirror])
mcmc_th = int(np.clip(np.ceil(len(act_rate) / 100), 2, 15))
beast_result = rb.beast(act_rate_mirrored, period=0,
tcp_minmax=[0, tcp_max],
torder_minmax=[torder_min, torder_max],
tseg_minlength=2, mcmc_chains=10,
mcmc_thin=mcmc_th, mcmc_seed=10)
# User-driven ncp selection
if ncp_choice == 'median':
ncp = beast_result.trend.ncp_median
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
return beast_result, np.array([])
elif ncp_choice == 'mode':
ncp = beast_result.trend.ncp_mode
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
return beast_result, np.array([])
elif ncp_choice == 'pct90':
ncp = beast_result.trend.ncp_pct90
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
return beast_result, np.array([])
else: # default: median with mode and pct90 fallback
ncp = beast_result.trend.ncp_median
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
ncp = beast_result.trend.mode
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
ncp = beast_result.trend.ncp_pct90
if np.isnan(ncp) or ncp == 0:
return beast_result, np.array([])
ncp = int(ncp)
cps = beast_result.trend.cp[:ncp]
# Discard mirrored zone changepoints and correct indices
valid_mask = (cps > mirror_len) & (cps <= mirror_len + len(act_rate))
cps = cps[valid_mask] - mirror_len
return beast_result, np.sort(cps)
def bins_and_beast(dates, unit, bin_dur, multiplicator):
start_date = dates.min()
end_date = dates.max()
valid_units = ['hours', 'days']
if unit not in valid_units:
unit = 'days'
bin_dur = 15
if (end_date - start_date) < 15 and unit == 'days':
unit = 'hours'
bin_dur = 12
bin_edges = [end_date]
while bin_edges[-1] > start_date:
bin_edges.append(bin_edges[-1] - (bin_dur / multiplicator))
bin_edges = bin_edges[::-1]
#-------Drop first bin or keep it if >80% of set duration------
first_width_days = bin_edges[1] - start_date
first_width_units = first_width_days * multiplicator
if first_width_units >= 0.8 * bin_dur:
bin_edges[0] = start_date # edge of first bin is at data start
else:
bin_edges = bin_edges[1:] # drop bin 0 (and its events)
#------------Error if remaining bins are fewer than 2------------
if len(bin_edges) < 2:
raise ValueError(
f"Not enough data to form at least one full bin of duration "
f"{bin_dur} {unit}(s) after dropping the partial first bin "
f"({first_width_units:.2f} {unit}(s), below the 80% threshold). "
f"Try a shorter bin_dur or check your input data range."
)
bin_edges_dt = [datenum_to_datetime(d) for d in bin_edges]
bin_counts, _ = np.histogram(dates, bins=bin_edges)
act_rate = [count / ((bin_edges[i + 1] - bin_edges[i]) * multiplicator / bin_dur)
for i, count in enumerate(bin_counts)]
out, cps = apply_beast(act_rate)
if len(cps) > 0:
rt, boundaries = calc_rates(act_rate, cps)
print(f'Changepoints detected at bins: {cps}')
else:
rt = []
boundaries = []
print('-----------------------------------------------------')
print('No changepoints detected by BEAST (Zhao et al., 2019)')
print('-----------------------------------------------------')
return act_rate, bin_counts, bin_edges, bin_edges_dt, out, cps, rt, boundaries, bin_dur, unit
def main(catalog_file, mc_file, pdf_file, m_file, m_select, mag_label, mc, m_max,
m_kde_method, xy_select, grid_dim, xy_win_method, rate_select, time_win_duration,
forecast_select, custom_rate, forecast_len, time_unit, model, products_string, verbose):
# forecast_select, custom_rate, forecast_len, time_unit, model, products_string, verbose):
forecast_select, custom_rate, forecast_len, time_unit, AOI_extent, model, products_string, verbose):
"""
Python application that reads an earthquake catalog and performs seismic hazard forecasting.
Arguments:
@@ -33,6 +284,8 @@ def main(catalog_file, mc_file, pdf_file, m_file, m_select, mag_label, mc, m_max
forecasting.
forecast_len: Length of the forecast for seismic hazard assessment.
time_unit: Times units for the inputs Time Window Duration, Custom Activity Rate, and Forecast Length.
AOI_extent: The forecast geographical area of interest specified as a latitude and longitude range in decimal degrees
in the form [lat_min, lat_max, lon_min, lon_max].
model: Select from the following ground motion models available. Other models in the Openquake library are
available but have not yet been tested.
products_string: The ground motion intensity types to output. Use a space between names to select more than
@@ -52,7 +305,6 @@ def main(catalog_file, mc_file, pdf_file, m_file, m_select, mag_label, mc, m_max
from math import ceil, floor, isnan
import numpy as np
import dask
from dask.diagnostics import ProgressBar # use Dask progress bar
import kalepy as kale
import utm
from skimage.transform import resize
@@ -69,6 +321,7 @@ def main(catalog_file, mc_file, pdf_file, m_file, m_select, mag_label, mc, m_max
from matplotlib.contour import ContourSet
import xml.etree.ElementTree as ET
import json
import multiprocessing as mp
logger = getDefaultLogger('igfash')
@@ -88,11 +341,12 @@ def main(catalog_file, mc_file, pdf_file, m_file, m_select, mag_label, mc, m_max
else:
logger.setLevel(logging.INFO)
# temporary hard-coded configuration
# exclude_low_fxy = False
exclude_low_fxy = True
exclude_low_fxy = False # skip low probability areas of the map
thresh_fxy = 1e-3 # minimum fxy value (location PDF) needed to do PGA estimation (to skip low probability areas); also should scale according to number of grid points
AOI_lat = np.array(AOI_extent[:2])
AOI_lon = np.array(AOI_extent[2:])
# log user selections
logger.debug(f"User input files\n Catalog: {catalog_file}\n Mc: {mc_file}\n Mag_PDF: {pdf_file}\n Mag: {m_file}")
logger.debug(
@@ -125,10 +379,6 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
logger.info("No magnitude label of catalog specified, therefore try Mw by default")
mag_label = 'Mw'
# if cat_label == None:
# print("No magnitude label of catalog specified, therefore try 'Catalog' by default")
# cat_label='Catalog'
time, mag, lat, lon, depth = read_mat_cat(catalog_file, mag_label=mag_label, catalog_label='Catalog')
# check for null magnitude values
@@ -221,19 +471,37 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
utm_zone_letter = u[3]
logger.debug(f"Latitude / Longitude coordinates correspond to UTM zone {utm_zone_number}{utm_zone_letter}")
# define corners of grid based on global dataset
x_min = x.min()
y_min = y.min()
x_max = x.max()
y_max = y.max()
if (None not in AOI_lat) and (None not in AOI_lon):
use_AOI = True
logger.info(f"Area of Interest (AOI) selected with latitutde range {AOI_lat} and longitude range {AOI_lon}")
#convert AOI to UTM
u_AOI = utm.from_latlon(AOI_lat, AOI_lon)
x_AOI = u_AOI[0]
y_AOI = u_AOI[1]
# make sure grid contains the user's AOI
x_min = np.concatenate((x, x_AOI)).min()
y_min = np.concatenate((y, y_AOI)).min()
x_max = np.concatenate((x, x_AOI)).max()
y_max = np.concatenate((y, y_AOI)).max()
exclude_low_fxy = False # don't exclude any points because we need to analyze all grid points in the AOI
else:
use_AOI = False
# define corners of grid based on global dataset
x_min = x.min()
y_min = y.min()
x_max = x.max()
y_max = y.max()
grid_x_max = int(ceil(x_max / grid_dim) * grid_dim)
grid_x_min = int(floor(x_min / grid_dim) * grid_dim)
grid_y_max = int(ceil(y_max / grid_dim) * grid_dim)
grid_y_min = int(floor(y_min / grid_dim) * grid_dim)
grid_lat_max, grid_lon_max = utm.to_latlon(grid_x_max, grid_y_max, utm_zone_number, utm_zone_letter)
grid_lat_min, grid_lon_min = utm.to_latlon(grid_x_min, grid_y_min, utm_zone_number, utm_zone_letter)
# rectangular grid
nx = int((grid_x_max - grid_x_min) / grid_dim) + 1
@@ -248,17 +516,23 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
nx = ny
grid_x_max = int(grid_x_min + (nx - 1) * grid_dim)
# update grid extent in lat/lon
grid_lat_max, grid_lon_max = utm.to_latlon(grid_x_max, grid_y_max, utm_zone_number, utm_zone_letter)
grid_lat_min, grid_lon_min = utm.to_latlon(grid_x_min, grid_y_min, utm_zone_number, utm_zone_letter)
# new x and y range
x_range = np.linspace(grid_x_min, grid_x_max, nx)
y_range = np.linspace(grid_y_min, grid_y_max, ny)
logger.debug(f"Grid X range: {x_range}, Y range: {y_range}")
t_windowed = time
r_windowed = [[x, y]]
# %% compute KDE and extract PDF
start = timer()
if xy_win_method == "TW":
if xy_win_method:
logger.info("Time weighting function selected")
x_weights = np.linspace(0, 15, len(t_windowed))
@@ -319,7 +593,7 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
# run activity rate modeling
lambdas = [None]
if custom_rate != None and forecast_select:
if custom_rate != None and forecast_select and not rate_select:
logger.info(f"Using activity rate specified by user: {custom_rate} per {time_unit}")
lambdas = np.array([custom_rate], dtype='d')
lambdas_perc = np.array([1], dtype='d')
@@ -327,9 +601,12 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
elif rate_select:
logger.info(f"Activity rate modeling selected")
time, mag_dummy, lat_dummy, lon_dummy, depth_dummy = read_mat_cat(catalog_file, output_datenum=True)
datenum_data, mag_data, lat_dummy, lon_dummy, depth_dummy = read_mat_cat(catalog_file, mag_label=mag_label, output_datenum=True)
datenum_data = time # REMEMBER THE DECIMAL DENOTES DAYS
if trim_to_mc:
indices = np.argwhere(mag_data < mc)
mag_data = np.delete(mag_data, indices)
datenum_data = np.delete(datenum_data, indices)
if time_unit == 'hours':
multiplicator = 24
@@ -346,32 +623,46 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
logger.error(msg)
raise Exception(msg)
# Selects dates in datenum format and procceeds to forecast value
start_date = datenum_data[-1] - (2 * time_win_duration / multiplicator)
dates_calc = [date for date in datenum_data if start_date <= date <= datenum_data[-1]]
forecasts, bca_conf95, rate_mean = bootstrap_forecast_rolling(dates_calc, multiplicator)
#-----------data are sorted in case they were not-----------------
sorted_pairs = sorted(zip(datenum_data, mag_data), key=lambda x: x[0])
datenum_data, mag_data = map(list, zip(*sorted_pairs))
# FINAL VALUES OF RATE AND ITS UNCERTAINTY IN THE 5-95 PERCENTILE
unc_bca05 = [ci.low for ci in bca_conf95];
unc_bca95 = [ci.high for ci in bca_conf95]
rate_unc_high = multiplicator / np.array(unc_bca05);
rate_unc_low = multiplicator / np.array(unc_bca95);
rate_forecast = multiplicator / np.median(forecasts) # [per time unit]
#-------split the data into bins and apply BEAST for changepoint detection--------------------
act_rate, bin_counts, bin_edges, bin_edges_dt, out, cps, rt, boundaries, bin_dur, time_unit = bins_and_beast(
np.array(datenum_data), time_unit, time_win_duration, multiplicator)
# Plot of forecasted activity rate with previous binned activity rate
act_rate, bin_counts, bin_edges, out, pprs, rt, idx, u_e = calc_bins(np.array(datenum_data), time_unit,
time_win_duration, dates_calc,
rate_forecast, rate_unc_high, rate_unc_low,
multiplicator, quiet=True, figsize=(14,9))
#------Forecasted rate is taken from BEAST or is equal to last value if no changepoints detected-----
if len(cps) > 0:
rate_forecast = rt[-1]
last_cp_bin = int(cps[-1])
else:
rate_forecast = act_rate[-1]
last_cp_bin = len(act_rate) - 1
# Assign probabilities
lambdas, lambdas_perc = lambda_probs(act_rate, dates_calc, bin_edges)
lambdas = np.array(lambdas, dtype='d')
lambdas_perc = np.array(lambdas_perc, dtype='d')
last_cp_datenum = bin_edges[last_cp_bin]
dates_calc = [date for date in datenum_data if last_cp_datenum <= date <= datenum_data[-1]]
interevent_times = np.diff(dates_calc)
# print("Forecasted activity rates: ", lambdas, "events per", time_unit[:-1])
logger.info(f"Forecasted activity rates: {lambdas} events per {time_unit} with percentages {lambdas_perc}")
np.savetxt('activity_rate.csv', np.vstack((lambdas, lambdas_perc)).T, header="lambda, percentage",
#------------Use BCa for uncertainty intervals-----------------
forecast, bca_conf95 = bootstrap_forecast(interevent_times)
rate_unc_high = bin_dur / (bca_conf95.low * multiplicator)
rate_unc_low = bin_dur / (bca_conf95.high * multiplicator)
#----------------------Plot------------------------------------
plot_results(act_rate, bin_edges, bin_edges_dt, rt, boundaries,
bin_dur, time_unit, multiplicator,
rate_forecast, rate_unc_high, rate_unc_low,
datenum_data, mag_data)
logger.info("\n----------------- Forecast Summary -----------------")
logger.info(f"Forecasted activity rate (next {bin_dur} {time_unit}(s)): {rate_forecast:.4f}")
logger.info(f"95% BCa confidence interval: [{rate_unc_low:.4f}, {rate_unc_high:.4f}]")
logger.info("------------------------------------------------------")
lambdas = np.array([rate_forecast/bin_dur], dtype='d')
lambdas_perc = np.array([1], dtype='d')
np.savetxt('activity_rate.csv', lambdas, header=f"Activity Rate (Events per {time_unit[:-1]})",
delimiter=',', fmt='%1.4f')
if forecast_select:
@@ -398,7 +689,7 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
logger.error(msg)
raise Exception(msg)
if lambdas[0] == None:
if lambdas == None:
msg = "Activity rate modeling was not selected and custom activity rate was not provided; cannot continue..."
logger.error(msg)
raise Exception(msg)
@@ -416,18 +707,22 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
fxy = xy_kde[0]
logger.debug(f"Normalization check; sum of all f(x,y) values = {np.sum(fxy)}")
xx, yy = np.meshgrid(x_range, y_range, indexing='ij') # grid points
xx, yy = np.meshgrid(x_range, y_range) # grid points
# set every grid point to be a receiver
grid_shape = xx.shape
x_rx = xx.flatten()
y_rx = yy.flatten()
num_points = x_rx.size
distances = np.zeros(shape=(num_points, grid_shape[0], grid_shape[1]))
# compute distance matrix for each receiver
distances = np.zeros(shape=(nx * ny, nx, ny))
#distances = np.zeros(shape=(nx * ny, nx, ny))
rx_lat = np.zeros(nx * ny)
rx_lon = np.zeros(nx * ny)
for i in range(nx * ny):
for i in range(num_points):
# Compute the squared distances directly using NumPy's vectorized operations
squared_distances = (xx - x_rx[i]) ** 2 + (yy - y_rx[i]) ** 2
distances[i] = np.sqrt(squared_distances)
@@ -437,50 +732,66 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
utm_zone_letter) # get receiver location as lat,lon
# convert distances from m to km because openquake ground motion models take input distances in kilometres
distances = distances/1000.0
#distances = distances/1000.0
# compute ground motion only at grid points that have minimum probability density of thresh_fxy
if exclude_low_fxy:
indices = list(np.where(fxy.flatten() > thresh_fxy)[0])
else:
indices = range(0, len(distances))
indices = np.arange(num_points)
if use_AOI:
# Filter out receivers outside the AOI; Find indices where values are OUTSIDE the AOI
indices_outside_x = np.where((x_rx < x_AOI[0]) | (x_rx > x_AOI[1]))[0]
indices_outside_y = np.where((y_rx < y_AOI[0]) | (y_rx > y_AOI[1]))[0]
indices_outside_AOI = np.unique(np.concatenate((indices_outside_x, indices_outside_y)))
indices_filtered = np.setdiff1d(indices, indices_outside_AOI)
else:
indices_filtered = indices
fr = fxy.flatten()
# For each receiver compute estimated ground motion values
logger.info(f"Estimating ground motion intensity at {len(indices)} grid points...")
PGA = np.zeros(shape=(nx * ny))
logger.info(f"Estimating ground motion intensity at {len(indices_filtered)} grid points...")
start = timer()
use_pp = False
use_pp = True
if use_pp: # use dask parallel computing
pbar = ProgressBar()
pbar.register()
# iter = range(0,len(distances))
iter = indices
mp.set_start_method("fork", force=True)
iter = indices_filtered
iml_grid_raw = [] # raw ground motion grids
for imt in products:
logger.info(f"Estimating {imt}")
if imt == "PGV":
IMT_max = 200 # search interval max for velocity (cm/s)
else:
IMT_max = 2.0 # search interval max for acceleration (g)
imls = [dask.delayed(compute_IMT_exceedance)(rx_lat[i], rx_lon[i], distances[i].flatten(), fr, p, lambdas,
forecast_len, lambdas_perc, m_range, m_pdf, m_cdf, model,
log_level=logging.DEBUG, imt=imt, IMT_min=0.0, IMT_max=2.0, rx_label=i,
log_level=logging.DEBUG, imt=imt, IMT_min=0.0, IMT_max=IMT_max, rx_label=i,
rtol=0.1, use_cython=True) for i in iter]
iml = dask.compute(*imls)
iml_grid_raw.append(list(iml))
else:
iml_grid_raw = []
iter = indices
iter = indices_filtered
for imt in products:
if imt == "PGV":
IMT_max = 200 # search interval max for velocity (cm/s)
else:
IMT_max = 2.0 # search interval max for acceleration (g)
iml = []
for i in iter:
iml_i = compute_IMT_exceedance(rx_lat[i], rx_lon[i], distances[i].flatten(), fr, p, lambdas, forecast_len,
lambdas_perc, m_range, m_pdf, m_cdf, model, imt=imt, IMT_min = 0.0,
IMT_max = 2.0, rx_label = i, rtol = 0.1, use_cython=True)
IMT_max = IMT_max, rx_label = i, rtol = 0.1, use_cython=True)
iml.append(iml_i)
logger.info(f"Estimated {imt} at rx {i} is {iml_i}")
iml_grid_raw.append(iml)
@@ -488,6 +799,8 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
end = timer()
logger.info(f"Ground motion exceedance computation time: {round(end - start, 1)} seconds")
logger.debug(f"IMT values: {iml_grid_raw[0]}")
if np.isnan(iml_grid_raw).all():
msg = "No valid ground motion intensity measures were forecasted. Try a different ground motion model."
logger.error(msg)
@@ -497,39 +810,64 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
iml_grid = [[] for _ in range(len(products))] # final ground motion grids
iml_grid_prep = iml_grid.copy() # temp ground motion grids
if exclude_low_fxy:
for i in range(0, len(distances)):
if i in indices:
for j in range(0, len(products)):
iml_grid_prep[j].append(iml_grid_raw[j].pop(0))
else:
list(map(lambda lst: lst.append(np.nan),
iml_grid_prep)) # use np.nan to indicate grid point excluded
else:
iml_grid_prep = iml_grid_raw
#if use_AOI or exclude_low_fxy:
for j in range(0, len(products)):
vmin = min(x for x in iml_grid_prep[j] if x is not np.nan)
vmax = max(x for x in iml_grid_prep[j] if x is not np.nan)
iml_grid[j] = np.reshape(iml_grid_prep[j], (nx, ny)).astype(
dtype=np.float64) # this reduces values to 8 decimal places
iml_grid_tmp = np.nan_to_num(iml_grid[j]) # change nans to zeroes
# Reassemble the grid cleanly using the original shape
# Initialize a flat array filled entirely with NaNs
iml_grid_flat = np.full(num_points, np.nan, dtype=np.float64)
# upscale the grid
up_factor = 4
iml_grid_hd = resize(iml_grid_tmp, (up_factor * len(iml_grid_tmp), up_factor * len(iml_grid_tmp)),
mode='reflect', anti_aliasing=False)
iml_grid_hd[iml_grid_hd == 0.0] = np.nan # change zeroes back to nan
# Assign the computed values to their exact original 1D index positions
iml_grid_flat[indices_filtered] = iml_grid_raw[j]
# trim edges so the grid is not so blocky
vmin_hd = min(x for x in iml_grid_hd.flatten() if not isnan(x))
vmax_hd = max(x for x in iml_grid_hd.flatten() if not isnan(x))
trim_thresh = vmin
iml_grid_hd[iml_grid_hd < trim_thresh] = np.nan
# Reshape back using the exact shape of your original xx/yy grids
iml_grid_prep[j] = iml_grid_flat.reshape(grid_shape)
#for i in indices:
# if i in indices_filtered:
# for j in range(0, len(products)):
# iml_grid_prep[j].append(iml_grid_raw[j].pop(0))
# else:
# list(map(lambda lst: lst.append(np.nan),
# iml_grid_prep)) # use np.nan to indicate grid point excluded
#elif exclude_low_fxy:
# for i in range(0, len(distances)):
# if i in indices:
# for j in range(0, len(products)):
# iml_grid_prep[j].append(iml_grid_raw[j].pop(0))
# else:
# list(map(lambda lst: lst.append(np.nan),
# iml_grid_prep)) # use np.nan to indicate grid point excluded
#else:
# iml_grid_prep = iml_grid_raw
for j in range(0, len(products)):
vmin = np.nanmin(iml_grid_prep[j])
vmax = np.nanmax(iml_grid_prep[j])
#iml_grid[j] = np.reshape(iml_grid_prep[j], (nx, ny)).astype(dtype=np.float64) # this reduces values to 8 decimal places
#iml_grid_tmp = np.nan_to_num(iml_grid[j]) # change nans to zeroes
# upscale the grid, trim, and interpolate if there are at least 10 grid values with range greater than 0.1
#if np.count_nonzero(iml_grid_tmp) >= 10 and vmax-vmin > 0.1:
# up_factor = 1
# iml_grid_hd = resize(iml_grid_tmp, (up_factor * len(iml_grid_tmp), up_factor * len(iml_grid_tmp)),
# mode='reflect', anti_aliasing=False)
# trim_thresh = vmin
# iml_grid_hd[iml_grid_hd < trim_thresh] = np.nan
#else:
#iml_grid_hd = iml_grid_tmp
#iml_grid_hd[iml_grid_hd == 0.0] = np.nan # change zeroes back to nan
iml_grid_hd = iml_grid_prep[j]
#vmin_hd = min(x for x in iml_grid_hd.flatten() if not isnan(x))
vmax_hd = np.nanmax(iml_grid_hd)
# generate image overlay
north, south = lat.max(), lat.min() # Latitude range
east, west = lon.max(), lon.min() # Longitude range
north, south = grid_lat_max, grid_lat_min # Latitude range
east, west = grid_lon_max, grid_lon_min # Longitude range
bounds = [[south, west], [north, east]]
map_center = [np.mean([north, south]), np.mean([east, west])]
@@ -538,13 +876,14 @@ verbose: {verbose}")
cmap_name = 'YlOrRd'
cmap = plt.get_cmap(cmap_name)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6, 6))
ax.imshow(iml_grid_hd, origin='lower', cmap=cmap, vmin=vmin, vmax=vmax)
fig.add_axes([0, 0, 1, 1])
ax.imshow(iml_grid_hd, origin='lower', cmap=cmap, vmin=vmin, vmax=vmax, interpolation='bilinear', aspect='auto')
ax.axis('off')
# Save the figure
fig.canvas.draw()
overlay_filename = f"overlay_{j}.svg"
plt.savefig(overlay_filename, bbox_inches="tight", pad_inches=0, transparent=True)
plt.savefig(overlay_filename, pad_inches=0, transparent=True)
plt.close(fig)
# Embed geographic bounding box into the SVG
+4
View File
@@ -32,6 +32,9 @@ def main(argv):
else:
raise argparse.ArgumentTypeError("Boolean value expected.")
def float_or_none(v):
return None if v.lower() == "none" else float(v)
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
parser.add_argument("catalog_file", help="Path to input file of type 'catalog'")
@@ -55,6 +58,7 @@ def main(argv):
parser.add_argument("--time_unit", type=str)
parser.add_argument("--model", type=str)
parser.add_argument("--products_string", type=str)
parser.add_argument("--AOI_extent", nargs=4, type=float_or_none, default=[None] * 4, required=False)
parser.add_argument("--verbose", type=str2bool)
args = parser.parse_args()